If half the sailors are gone

How will the ship weather the storm, if half the sailors are gone?

[2008-04-22]

I used to work a lot with servers. Servers are different from workstations. One is prepared to spend more on server hardware to make sure that things are less likely to go wrong. And one spends additionally on fallbacks and failsafes in the event that something does go wrong.

Having a family can be compared to having a server. When it's just you, you drive a little faster. You insure a little less.

In South Africa it would be crazy to have a server without a UPS (uninterrupted power supply). Clean shutdowns and protected power supplies are something you want to take care of in a "harsh environment".

But what about a family? How do you take care of a family in this environment. And when I say "this", I'd like to think broader than just Cape Town, or even Africa.

In the words of Bob Dylan, a hard rain's a-gonna fall. As population and consumption levels rise exponentially, and food production rises linearly at best, it doesn't take a folk singer to see a problem on the horizon. Throw in some crop failures due to erratic weather, farmers switching to better-paying biofuel crops, increased demand for meat in countries where the average standard of living is getting better and better, and soon that problem is a lot closer. And for some local flavour, throw in a tyrant in a neighbouring country who has destroyed his agricultural economy, and local farmers leaving for fear of a similar fate.

But wait. Before we get carried away with the doomsday predictions, I want to consider why Cape Town is the mutt's nuts. Apart from being outrageously beautiful, especially during this time of year, Cape Town is home to fantastic cultural diversity. Everyone who lives in Cape Town has immigrated here in the past 350 years, because the previous inhabitants either died of smallpox or migrated north. I think there is something important about immigrants, and the genes they pass onto their offspring. They embrace adventure. They are not afraid of hard work. They know that struggle is part of life. They are not afraid of living with people who are different from them; and often they appreciate heterogeneity. The greatest cities in the world are great because of immigrants. Cape Town isn't a big city, but it's great to live in. And it certainly seems to take pleasure in its diversity more than most cities.

Cape Town is sophisticated, liberal, sometimes cliquey and snobbish. It has its own flavours of art, music and drugs. Its political opponents give each other a good run for their money. I like that.

A bit like the way that Canada might feel that its biggest drawback is that it's attached to the United States, I feel that the Western Cape would be better as an island off the coast of southern Africa. Think how the English would feel if they were told that the English Channel was going to be reclaimed, and soon they would be attached to France. Less than overjoyed, I'm sure.

Sipping cappuccino in a pavement café outside Cavendish, it might be hard to consider that Cape Town's future is inextricably tied to the future of Africa, but it can't be denied. Many Zimbabweans are moving south to South Africa. A few South Africans are moving south, to Cape Town. And a chunk of Capetonians (along with a bunch of other South Africans) are moving to the UK, the US, Australia and New Zealand. Bob Dylan would probably understand the motivation of many of them. The people who are moving are the immigrant type. The type who make cities great. They are like the sailors on the passenger ships of nations. And if that hard rain is going to fall, and sooner or later it definitely is, how will the ship weather the storm, if half the sailors are gone?

Which countries are best equipped to face a future of worldwide famine and associated violence, and yet still be the kind of place where one might want to raise kids? I'm afraid that Africa might be hit very hard.

Which countries have, as part of an unchanging national character, a sense of pulling together and sharing the load, but still retaining personal liberties. How do they look after their sick? How do they empower their poor?

Which countries are least likely to be directly affected by hurricanes, blizzards, floods or drought? Or if they are, will manage to cope the best.

Those countries would make a good UPS for a family.

 

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